The Week in One Page — Week of 25 July 2026
Bottom Line
Scrap into Turkey rose $5 per tonne this week to $373 per tonne. But the rise came from war-risk and shipping costs, not real demand. Firm up pricing to $370–375 per tonne, but do not chase above $380.
5 Things You Need to Know
- Scrap into Turkey rose $5 per tonne to $373. Sellers raised offers because shipping got dearer, not because mills need more steel.
- A key US price jumped almost $10 per tonne after two weeks stuck. Fresh US cargoes sold at $375–376 per tonne.
- Turkish mills are struggling. Their flat-steel price fell $20 per tonne — proof they cannot pass higher scrap costs to buyers.
- Iron ore, a rival raw material, fell below $100 per tonne as a supply scare faded.
- No new deals were signed. Our earlier shred and rail orders now look well-priced as the market firms.
Top 3 Actions This Week
- Raise Turkish scrap pricing to $370–375 per tonne. Hold there — do not chase above $380. WHEN: now, for August loading. WHY: the rise is driven by shipping and war-risk, not steel demand, so it may not last.
- Re-check shipping costs into the Gulf and Pakistan before firming any offer. WHEN: before quoting August cargoes. WHY: the same war-risk lifting scrap also lifts our own delivered cost — the move cuts both ways.
- Keep pricing shredded orders at $383–388 per tonne and rail/windmill orders near $440 per tonne. WHEN: now. WHY: Turkey’s rise makes these earlier prices look strong, so hold them.
Why Prices Moved (and Other Changes)
Trouble between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz raised shipping costs. Sellers used that to lift offers, saying the old lows could not be repeated. So scrap rose even though mills were not buying more. We know demand is weak because Turkish flat steel dropped $20 per tonne the same week. Iron ore fell because a feared mine strike in Australia did not happen. No supplier or buyer news changed the bigger picture this week.
What to Watch Next Week
- Does the scrap rise hold or fade? If shipping costs calm, prices could give back the $5 gain. Watch for any deal below $370 per tonne.
- Pakistan’s price looks odd. Our market map shows it priced above Turkey, which is unusual. It should correct soon.
- Australian mine talks resume. A strike pushes iron ore up; a deal pushes it down.
Plain-English Glossary
- Scrap — old steel (cars, beams, machines) melted down to make new steel.
- Shredded — scrap chopped into small, clean pieces; a higher grade than plain scrap.
- Flat steel — flat sheet steel used in cars and appliances; different from bars and rails.
- Iron ore — the mined rock used to make steel in blast furnaces; a rival raw material to scrap.
- Per tonne — the standard unit; one tonne is about 1,000 kilograms.
Drill-down: Weekly Briefing — 25 Jul 2026 · Ventures Watchlist Priorities · Scrap Arbitrage Map — 2026-07-25 · Weekly Price Deltas — 20 Jul → 24 Jul 2026