TDC Ventures
TDC Scrap Weekly
Week of 29 August 2026
One-page weekly
9 of 11 = 82% in range — every call scored, misses included | Last: LME copper cash/3M spread → forecast $120–650 backwardation (c: $300), actual +$180.50 (1 Sep) — HIT | Next: Pakistan scrap import (4 Sep 2026) · Turkey shredded scrap CFR (4 Sep 2026)
This week’s story
Turkish mills raised the price of finished steel sharply this week, but the scrap they melt did not move. That gap favours the buyer, so hold your price and do not pay more just because steel got dearer.
The tape
E40 Shredded scrap CFR Bangladesh
$405.00
+16.50 · +4.25%
HMS 1&2 80:20 CFR Bangladesh
$372.50
+7.50 · +2.05%
HMS 1&2 80:20 CFR Turkey
$380.00
+0.00 · 0.00%
Iron ore 61% Fe CFR Qingdao
$99.43
-0.13 · -0.13%
Why prices moved
Turkish mills raised steel prices for reasons of their own. Their currency moved, they expect higher energy bills, and they are booking export orders before new European quotas start on 1 October. Scrap did not follow, because European sellers have not sold above $380 per tonne all month. In Pakistan, buyers refused a known shipping increase four days running, so that cost stays with the seller. Separately, a United States rule on battery and tungsten scrap got stricter.
What to watch
01Does the Pakistan scrap price update on Friday 4 September? It has been frozen since 25 August, so the next print carries extra weight.
02Does India keep paying more than Turkey? That flipped this week, and it changes where European scrap gets sent.
03Does the 31 August surcharge stick, and do spot bookings escape it? That answer is worth more than this week's price move.
04Pakistan scrap import — our open call resolves 4 Sep 2026 (central $412.5).
05Turkey shredded scrap CFR — our open call resolves 4 Sep 2026 (central $391).
Every forecast we publish is scored against named published benchmarks — hits and misses alike. Full track record · Live dashboard
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