Live dashboardtape as of 4 Sep 2026 · rebuilt 4 Sep 2026
In-range forecast hit rate
82%
9 of 11 resolved sub-components landed in range
Mean abs error
$3.09/t
$— ex-outlier
Direction
64%
7 of 11
Best call
$—/t
Turkey Shredded CFR (Kallanish)
Median abs error
$1.78/t
open forecasts: 2
Today’s tape — physical publisher prints
Iron ore KORE 61%
$99.43
-0.13
FM US-origin CFR Turkey
$376.53
US Midwest HRC ($/cwt)
$61.26
+0.52 (0.86%)
Arb watch — Billet FOB ex-Russia (SO mid) → Egypt CFR billet (0516) +$47.50/t. Largest flagged gap on the current arbitrage map.
World context — public series
Brent crude
$95.52/bbl
2026-09-03 · ICE Brent front-month @LCO.1 (CNBC)
USD strength
-0.43% vs 30d
2026-09-03 · ECB-derived USD proxy (frankfurter.app) — not ICE DXY
Forecast calibration — signed error vs central ($/t)
−$119.50
LME copper cash/3M spread
+$1.21
Pakistan shred 211
+$18.00
Pakistan shred 211
−$2.50
Turkey shredded
−$7.50
Turkey shredded
−$12.00
Pakistan PNS
+$0.00
Pakistan windmill plates
−$3.00
Pakistan R65 rails
Open forecasts
Pakistan scrap import
$412.5 c
target 4 Sep 2026
Turkey shredded scrap CFR
$391 c
target 4 Sep 2026
Track record — recent resolutions
| Target | Market | Benchmark | Range (c) | Actual | Hit | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | LME copper cash/3M spread | LME official settlements | $120–650 backwardation (c: $300) | +$180.50 (1 Sep) | ✓ | −$119.50 (spread, not a price — see below) |
| 2026-08-06 | Pakistan shred 211 | Index (MB-STE-0887) | $406–420 (c: $413) | $414.21 (7 Aug) | ✓ | +$1.21 |
| 2026-08-06 | Pakistan shred 211 | Transaction basis | $383–396 (c: $388) | $406.00 (19 Aug) | ✗ | +$18.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | Turkey shredded | Kallanish | $390–400 (c: $395) | $392.50 (6 Aug) | ✓ | −$2.50 |
| 2026-08-06 | Turkey shredded | Fastmarkets MB-STE-0095 | $390–400 (c: $395) | $387.50 (6 Aug) | ✗ | −$7.50 |
| 2026-08-06 | Pakistan PNS | dark market — lapsed | $382–398 (c: $388) | $376 (9 Mar, last pre-target) | ✗ | −$12.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | Pakistan windmill plates | dark market — lapsed | $432–460 (c: $440) | $440 (30 Jun, last pre-target) | ✓ | $0.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | Pakistan R65 rails | dark market — lapsed | $432–455 (c: $443) | $440 (2 Jul, last pre-target) | ✓ | −$3.00 |
Market analysis from TDC Ventures. Not trading advice. Prices are physical publisher/index prints (Kallanish, Fastmarkets, SteelOrbis); analyst commentary and futures references are excluded. Full scored record: Forecast track record. Auto-generated by build-dashboard.py — do not edit by hand.