The Market in Numbers
Official statistics that shape the scrap market, translated into plain English. Every figure below comes from a government agency, an industry association, or a regulated index — never from rumor, never from a broker’s pitch. Updated after the first Saturday of each month. Full provenance for every number lives in the Official Statistics Log.
One rule before you read: these numbers describe the structure of the market — who makes steel, who buys scrap, which direction freight is moving. They are months behind the live market by nature. Nothing here is a price forecast; for those, see the Live Dashboard.
The world is making less steel — except where it’s making much more
Worldsteel, August 2026
The world produced 144.2 million tonnes of crude steel in August, down 1.2% on a year ago. But the average hides the real story:
- China: down 3.7% (74.6 Mt). The world’s biggest steelmaker is shrinking, and has been all year (−3.1% year-to-date).
- India: up 4.6%, and up 6% for the year. The world’s fastest-growing big buyer of raw materials.
- Vietnam: up 36.4%. A new scrap-hungry buyer growing at a pace nobody else matches.
- Türkiye: roughly flat in August, but up 6.8% for the year — Turkish mills are running much harder than in 2025.
Why it matters for scrap: steel mills are the only customers scrap has. When Turkish and Indian mills run harder, they need more imported scrap and prices firm. When China shrinks, it exports its surplus steel instead — which pressures everyone else’s mills, and eventually their scrap appetite.
America is keeping more of its scrap at home
USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, full-year 2025
The United States is the world’s biggest scrap exporter, so what happens inside America moves prices everywhere.
- US mills consumed 3% more scrap in 2025 (56.5 Mt)…
- …while US exports fell 17% (to 12.4 Mt).
Same country, opposite directions: American electric-arc mills are pulling harder on domestic scrap, leaving less to ship abroad. Turkey took 43% of what America did export in December — it remains the swing buyer of US material.
Why it matters: when the world’s biggest supplier keeps more for itself, everyone importing scrap — Turkey, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh — competes for a thinner surplus. That is structural support under import prices.
Where American scrap actually goes
US Census Bureau, June 2026
America exported $620 million of ferrous scrap in June. The buyers, by value:
| Destination | June 2026, US$ |
|---|---|
| Thailand | 132.7M |
| Türkiye | 112.7M |
| India | 61.7M |
| Vietnam | 49.4M |
| Pakistan | 47.9M |
| European Union | 45.7M |
Why it matters: Thailand out-buying Turkey is the kind of quiet shift the headlines miss — Southeast Asia’s pull on US material is real and growing. And Pakistan at ~$48M a month confirms the US–Pakistan corridor is a working artery, not a footnote.
Türkiye: producing more, exporting less
Turkish Steel Producers’ Association, early 2026
Turkey’s mills produced 6.4 Mt in January–February, up 4.7% — while their steel exports collapsed (−13.5%, with EU-bound sales down 36%). Domestic consumption rose 4.1%.
Why it matters: a mill base that grows while its export markets shrink is producing for home demand — and it still needs scrap for every tonne. That is the structural backdrop under Turkish import prices, whatever the week-to-week wiggles.
Who actually supplies Türkiye’s scrap
Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), January–August 2026, as reported by SteelOrbis
Türkiye buys more scrap from abroad than any other country, so its supplier list is a fair map of where the world’s export scrap comes from. In the first eight months of 2026 it imported 12.73 million tonnes, up 4.0% on a year ago, worth $5.02 billion (up 9.0%). The six biggest suppliers:
| Origin | Jan–Aug 2026 | vs Jan–Aug 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 2.48 Mt | +7.2% |
| United Kingdom | 1.50 Mt | +4.3% |
| Netherlands | 1.46 Mt | −25.8% |
| Romania | 0.98 Mt | +59.1% |
| Belgium | 0.94 Mt | −2.7% |
| Russia | 0.69 Mt | +31.8% |
- The United States is still the biggest single supplier — about one tonne in every five.
- The Netherlands is down by a quarter, roughly half a million tonnes less than a year ago.
- Romania and Russia grew by slightly more than the Netherlands lost. France grew too, up 43.8% to 0.43 Mt.
- August on its own was soft: 1.40 Mt, up 0.5% on a year ago but down 15.7% from July.
Why it matters: the bill rose faster than the tonnage (9.0% against 4.0%), so Türkiye paid more per tonne than it did last year. And the mix moved toward Türkiye’s Black Sea neighbours, Romania and Russia, and away from the Netherlands. These figures show the shift, not the reason for it. For anyone selling scrap into Türkiye from further away, the practical point is the same either way: Turkish mills have had closer alternatives this year, and used them.
Freight: Europe-bound rates falling fast, Pacific still at peak
Freightos Baltic Index, week of September 15, 2026
- Asia–North Europe: ~$4,300 per container, falling (−3% on the week)
- Asia–Mediterranean: ~$4,200, falling hard (−12%)
- Asia–US West Coast: still rising (+3%)
The driver: ships are returning to the Red Sea route — over a quarter of Asia–Europe capacity now sails through it again — which adds effective capacity and pulls rates down.
Why it matters: freight is part of every landed scrap price. We track the direction here; the actual lane rates in our deal math come from real forwarder quotes, never from an index.
What American sellers and buyers expect next month
Fastmarkets runs a free monthly survey of US scrap sellers, buyers and brokers before each domestic trade. For October 2026 the Trend Indicator is 65.9 (50 = neutral), so participants expect prices to rise; the survey’s model allows for about +6.6% month on month. Stocks are reported tighter than normal.
Why it matters here: when US yards expect better domestic prices they sell less abroad, which supports FOB New York and, a few weeks later, what a tonne costs landed in Port Qasim. It is sentiment, not a price — read it as direction.
| Month | Trend Indicator | Model m/m | Inventory | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 65.9 | +6.6% | 46.7 | 71% |
| Sep 2026 | 49.5 | +0.7% | 51.1 | 74% |
| Aug 2026 | 47.7 | -0.9% | 49.7 | 65% |
| Jul 2026 | 43.1 | +1.9% | 50.6 | 69% |
| Jun 2026 | 54.9 | +2.0% | 50.7 | 67% |
| Apr 2026 | 46.9 | -3.1% | 49 | — |
| Mar 2026 | 55.2 | -1.5% | 53.1 | — |
| Feb 2026 | 72.8 | +5.1% | 45.6 | — |
| Jan 2026 | 57.3 | +3.2% | 52.2 | 58% |
| Dec 2025 | 47.9 | -1.0% | 44.9 | 65% |
| Nov 2025 | 52.3 | -3.6% | — | 68% |
| Oct 2025 | 40.1 | -3.6% | 43.3 | 60% |
Source: Fastmarkets, “US scrap trends outlook” (free monthly summaries, fastmarkets.com/insights). Latest issue published 2026-09-30. Full series back to 2022-12 on the desk’s ledger.
When a benchmark changed its rules
Price publishers announce schedule changes, delays, spec changes and corrections on their public sites. These are the recent ones that touch a price you see on this site, so you can read a jump or a gap correctly.
| Date | What happened | Affects | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | delayed publication | the Bangladesh import prices, the India shredded import price, the published CFR Port Qasim shredded price (Pakistan) | Fastmarkets notice |
| 2026-09-11 | schedule or frequency change | the India shredded import price, the published CFR Port Qasim shredded price (Pakistan) | Fastmarkets notice |
Source: Fastmarkets’ free pricing notices, checked daily. Window: last 60 days.
Trade rules that move scrap
Tariffs, quotas and trade remedies change where scrap and steel can flow and at what cost. Recent public items touching steel, aluminium, copper or scrap:
- 2026-10-13 — Guidance on U.S. Content Assessment for Section 232 Steel, Aluminum, and Copper Tariffs (summary)
Source: GHY International’s public trade-compliance updates, checked daily. The legal instrument (proclamation, CBP guidance, Federal Register notice) is linked inside each summary; read that before acting.
How to read this page
Every number above is verified — pulled by hand from the named source, with the reference period stated. Sources publish on a lag (a June trade table arrives in late summer; USGS runs months behind), so treat this page as the slow-moving floor under the market, and the dashboard as the live tape on top of it. When a source goes quiet or serves stale data, we say so in the log rather than quietly reusing old numbers.
Sources: World Steel Association · US Geological Survey · US Census Bureau · Turkish Steel Producers’ Association · Turkish Statistical Institute · Pakistan Bureau of Statistics · Freightos Baltic Index. Each figure citable to its source with the reference period shown.