The Week in One Page — Week of 18 July 2026
Bottom Line
Scrap prices into Turkey stopped falling and held near $368 per tonne all week. Hold your offers at $363–$368 per tonne and do not chase — the market paused, but there is no real floor yet.
5 Things You Need to Know
- Turkey scrap prices went flat this week at about $368 per tonne. The month-long slide has paused.
- Mills want to pay around $355, and sellers refuse. Neither side moved, so prices sat still.
- A cargo ship partly sank in the Strait of Hormuz. That pushed Gulf shipping costs and some steel prices up.
- We signed four new supply deals: shredded scrap at $380–$388 per tonne, windmill plates at $440 per tonne.
- India is buying scrap cheaply, below what the math says, because its mills use a cheaper local material instead.
Top 3 Actions This Week
- Hold Turkey scrap offers. When: all week. Price: $363–$368 per tonne, never above $368. Why: the flat week is a pause, not a floor.
- Price new shredded orders at $383–$388 per tonne; keep buying rails and windmill plates at $440. When: now, for August shipping. Why: two repeat deals at $388 show a floor forming.
- Re-check shipping costs before you quote any cargo. When: before fixing a price. Why: Hormuz and low European rivers are pushing freight up.
Why Prices Moved (and Other Changes)
Turkey scrap stopped falling because buyers and sellers deadlocked. Mills cannot pay more while their steel sells poorly, and sellers will not go lower into the summer slowdown. Iron ore jumped then fell back, ending slightly up — a supply scare, not new demand. A ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf freight and insurance rose, and Egypt’s billet price rose $10 as buyers replaced lost cargo. In Europe, low river water made scrap costlier to move, so German prices fell about €30 per tonne.
What to Watch Next Week
- Does $368 hold or break? A drop below $362 per tonne means the slide is back on.
- The Hormuz situation. If ship problems spread, Gulf freight and billet prices climb further.
- India and Bangladesh buyers. Watch whether they return — they are the weakest buyers now.
Plain-English Glossary
- Scrap — recycled steel, melted down to make new steel.
- HMS 80:20 — Heavy Melting Scrap, an 80/20 mix of two grades; the most common bulk scrap.
- Shredded — scrap chopped into small clean pieces; a higher grade than HMS.
- Billet — a semi-finished steel bar that mills roll into rebar.
- CFR — the price includes shipping to the buyer’s port.
- FOB — the price excludes shipping; the buyer arranges freight.
Drill-down: Weekly Briefing — 18 Jul 2026 · Scrap Arbitrage Map — 2026-07-18 · Ventures Watchlist Priorities