Q3 2026 in 200 words
What happened. Turkey’s shredded scrap benchmark rose $19.50–25.00 a tonne over the quarter to $419–421, with every Atlantic origin — Rotterdam, the UK, the US East Coast — repricing alongside it from late August. Pakistan’s published CFR Port Qasim shredded price (Fastmarkets) did not follow: it stayed inside a $390–421 band and finished at $417.72, below Turkey for the first time since April.
Why it matters. Freight was flat ($980 per 20FT New York–Qasim all September) and the rupee was flat, so neither explains Pakistan’s stillness. Weak local steel demand does. Buyers held near $415–418 while $440+ offers went unconverted for four straight weeks.
What it means for you. Buyers in Pakistan: the index tracks deals, not offers — no reason yet to pay above the anchor. Sellers from the UK, Europe or the US East Coast: pricing South Asia off Turkey’s rally produces offers that sit unsold; the competition is landed US material. Traders: freight was quiet and is now the live variable.
What TDC thinks. Turkey’s rally was a cyclical restocking move with the shredded-over-HMS premium locked at $20. Pakistan is, for now, priced off its own bids rather than off Turkey — a relationship we are testing in public, not declaring.
The strongest evidence. US East Coast HMS landed into Qasim at about $400 a tonne on our calculation (20FT box, 25 t — the box Pakistan scrap ships in), roughly $18 under the published CFR Port Qasim shredded price, with freight under 10% of the number.
Watch next. Kallanish Turkey shredded above $428 or below $412 by 31 October; whether Qasim tracks Turkey’s October move within three weeks; the New York–Qasim 20FT rate (October’s board: $1,045, +6.6%).
Full report: TDC Scrap Outlook Q3 2026 → /public/outlook/2026-Q3 · Track record → /public/scorecard/track-record