Scrap Market Review — October 2026

Market analysis from TDC Ventures. Not trading advice. Data as of 31 October 2026; the Pakistan index and several Friday series are dated 23 October, and the 30 October prints reach us with Monday’s publications.

The month in one line

Turkish scrap ended October close to where it began, but not on a straight line: Fastmarkets’ Turkey price stepped down twice, fell again on 26 October, then jumped back on 27 October — while Pakistan’s published index sat in a narrow $414–417 channel and oil and shipping headlines stayed loud without moving a single scrap price.

What happened

Prices below are per tonne in US dollars. CFR means the price includes shipping to the buyer’s port; FOB means it does not. An index is a publisher’s assessment of where the market sits; a transaction is a deal that actually happened. A spread is the gap between two prices.

• Turkey, shredded scrap (CFR). Kallanish ended at $419.00 on 29 October, down $1.00 (−0.24%) on the month in a $413–420 range. Fastmarkets ended at $414.08, down $5.11 (−1.22%), in a range of $401.68–419.19. Fastmarkets stepped down $4.28 on 2 October and $5.00 on 8 October, then held $409.91 for more than two weeks, fell $8.23 on 26 October, and rose $12.40 on 27 October.
• Turkey, heavy melting scrap 80:20 (CFR). Kallanish $398.50 (−$1.50); Fastmarkets’ US-origin line $398.89 (−$5.11, −1.26%), with a month range of $386.49–404.00. Kallanish, Fastmarkets and SteelOrbis agreed within about 40 cents on the level on 29 October.
• Pakistan, shredded scrap (CFR Port Qasim). Fastmarkets’ published index stood at $415.35 on 23 October, down $2.37 (−0.57%) on the month, in a $414.07–417.31 range across four prints. On 23 October it was about $1.35 above Kallanish’s Turkey shredded price. The 30 October print arrives in the 2 November issue.
• Exporter prices (FOB). Rotterdam heavy melting scrap $354.17 (−1.42%) and UK $352.75 (−2.03%) eased; New York $348.50 rose $4.50 (+1.31%), in a $344–354 range.
• Steelmaking inputs and outlets. SteelOrbis iron ore (62% Fe, CFR China) $93.20, down $1.80 (−1.89%) after touching $91.50, a 90-day low. SteelOrbis’ Turkey rebar export price fell $30.00 (−4.78%) to a $597.50 midpoint.
• Non-ferrous (LME cash). Copper $14,250 (−1.37%), aluminium $3,080 (−4.70%), zinc $3,890 (+0.49%, after a swing from $3,681.50). Nickel’s biggest move was a rise of about $915 in the week to 22 October.
• Freight and cost. New York to Port Qasim on a 20-foot box was $1,045 ($41.80 per tonne at 25 tonnes), up from $980 in September, valid through 31 October. On that freight, New York heavy melting scrap lands in Port Qasim at about $402 per tonne, of which freight is 10.4%. Landed cost is the price delivered to the buyer’s port, including freight; this one is a cost check on a different grade, not a Pakistan shredded price.
• Currency. The rupee ended at 276.61 per dollar (−0.19%), the lira at 49.92 (+1.88%).

Why

Turkey’s moves were driven by reported cargoes, not by a trend. Fastmarkets reset its price down on 26 October after two Baltic-origin cargoes were reported near $383.50, and back up the next day after a US-origin cargo was reported near $401 for a slightly different grade. Kallanish moved by a dollar or two at a time and ended higher. Finished steel was weaker: rebar fell almost 5% and iron ore tested its 90-day low, which squeezes mill margins, while SteelOrbis noted that limited supply and firm scrap might still pull in billet imports.

Pakistan’s index barely moved even though September imports were strong — 427,880 tonnes, up 18.3% on August (SteelOrbis, 16 October). Volume is not the same as a rising price: mills bought selectively, and offers heard around $415–420 (SteelOrbis, 22 October) clustered near the index rather than above it.

Route risk was louder than its effect. Singapore’s maritime authority confirmed that a container ship was struck and sank near Hormuz on 13 October, oil rose through the month, and 19 navigational warnings stayed active in the Gulf through the last ten days. No scrap price and no verified carrier surcharge on Pakistan services moved with it.

What it means for you

• Turkish buyers and importers. The heavy-melt level is confirmed three ways at about $398.50; shredded is only confirmed at $414.08 by Fastmarkets. Treat $419 as a ceiling until Fastmarkets moves, and do not pay up on one publisher’s number.
• Pakistan importers. The published index of $415.35 (23 October) is the reference. Ask for dated, written buyer bids before paying above it, and read Monday’s 30 October print before quoting.
• Exporters in the US, UK and Europe. US yards held up (+1.31%) while Rotterdam and UK prices eased. Check the quote date on every comparison: Turkey’s one-day jumps are cargo-driven.
• Forwarders and shippers. The October Pakistan box rates expire on 31 October. Get November quotes in writing, per tonne, on the 20-foot box.
• Non-ferrous sellers. Aluminium fell almost 5% on the month and zinc swung hard late. Price off the same-day LME level, not last week’s quote.

Longer-term signals

• EU waste-export rules. The Commission’s draft list of non-OECD countries allowed to receive EU non-hazardous waste had a consultation that closed on 16 October. Pakistan is not proposed for metal waste. Sources differ on when the first list is due (end-2026 or 21 November); the restriction applies from 21 May 2027. Any EU-origin supply you plan beyond that date needs a lawful alternative.
• Thailand. Thai media report a Customs recommendation to restrict scrap imports with a transition of six to twelve months. No rule has been published.
• Demand context. worldsteel put September crude steel output at 142.4 million tonnes (−0.2% on the year), with India +1.9%, Türkiye +0.8% and the EU −5.0% (23 October release).
• US sentiment. Fastmarkets’ October survey of US sellers and buyers (published 30 September) pointed to higher prices; New York export prices ended the month 1.31% higher, a modest follow-through.

Outlook and what to watch next month

Three checks, each with a level and what would prove us wrong. Our open forecasts are published as written:

1. Does Pakistan’s index follow Turkey up? The 30 October print arrives 2 November; our forecast for 6 November is $409–422 (central $416). A print at or above $418 says Pakistan is following; at or below $413 says it is not. We are wrong if it breaks outside the range.
2. Does Fastmarkets confirm Kallanish’s Turkish shredded price? Our 6 November forecast is $407–425 (central $417). Fastmarkets at $417 or more confirms the move; back below $409.91 means the 27 October jump has reversed.
3. Does iron ore hold its $91.50 floor? A close below it, with rebar still falling, would put pressure on Turkish scrap within weeks. A move back above $95 would ease it.

Our record this month

Seven forecasts resolved in October across Turkey and Pakistan — eleven separate price checks. Ten landed in range (90.9%); the average miss was $3.78 per tonne (median $2.91); direction was right in six of eleven. Our closest call was Kallanish’s 2 October Turkey price, exactly on our central. Our miss was Fastmarkets’ Turkey price on 9 October: $409.91 against our $415–430 range, $12.09 under our central, because we expected the index to step up and it stepped down. Fastmarkets moves in rare, large steps in either direction, and a flat week is the most likely outcome. Full record: Forecast Track Record.

Method and sources

We anchor to published benchmarks, check each call against leading indicators (freight, iron ore, finished-steel margin), and write down the resolution basis before the target print exists. Every forecast is scored against the first print on or after its target date. Coverage limit: Friday-weekly series carry their 23 October assessment, and no issue dated 29 October is on file.

Sources: Fastmarkets (MB-STE-0887, MB-STE-0095, MB-STE-0417, MB-STE-0420, MB-STE-0418, MB-STE-0100), Kallanish, SteelOrbis, LME cash prices via metals.dev, currency data from open feeds, worldsteel, Singapore Maritime and Port Authority, and the Bureau of International Recycling’s public update. See also Watchlist Priorities.