Daily Market Note — 2026-10-31

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

A weekend with no new price information: the Pakistan reference level is still the last published weekly print, and the next one is a Monday-onward question. The CFR Port Qasim shredded price (Fastmarkets MB-STE-0887) stands at 415.35 USD per tonne for 23 October, up 1.28 from 414.07 a week earlier. Fastmarkets moved the index to Friday-only publication in September, and the 30 October value had not reached our files at the time of writing. BigMint shows a 30 October assessment for Europe-origin containerised shredded scrap into Qasim but does not publish the number openly, so there is no second public price. Saturday brings no London Metal Exchange session and no new Pakistan interbank close, and an absent print is not evidence that prices stood still.

Key moves

• Pakistan reference price — 415.35 USD per tonne (23 October), inside the 410–417 band of recent weeks; the 30 October print is the next datapoint to file.
• Oil — ICE front-month Brent closed the week near 113.43 USD a barrel on 30 October, below the intraday readings above 117 earlier that day. Lower oil eases bunker-cost pressure, but no change in container freight to Pakistan has been verified.
• Gulf navigation — active US NGA warnings remain 19, unchanged, so that gauge shows no added Gulf risk.

Freight and shipping

The Port Qasim Authority’s most recent visible daily programme is dated 30 October: two scheduled departures and four scheduled berthings, including a container vessel at QT2-II. These are plans rather than completed movements, and a 31 October programme was not available. No current carrier rate to Qasim from the UK, Europe, North America or the Gulf was verified, and tanker charter rates or oil headlines are not a guide to container freight. Scrap into Pakistan moves in 20-foot containers at about 25 tonnes, so any Pakistan freight comparison should use that box.

Supplier markets

• EU — the regime restricting non-hazardous waste exports to non-OECD destinations generally applies from 21 May 2027. The Bureau of International Recycling (13 October) said the consultation on the draft authorised-country list closed on 16 October and that a final list was expected on 21 November; no final list had been verified by 31 October, and the Commission’s September draft does not propose Pakistan for metal waste. Treat this as a medium-term sourcing risk, not a current ban.
• Alternative origins — the UK, Canada, the United States and Turkiye are the origins buyers are weighing for 2027 programmes; each needs its own export, Basel and destination-import review.
• UAE — whether Dubai’s scrap-export restrictions remain in force should be checked with Dubai Customs; no current status was confirmed.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Official LME cash prices (Westmetall) for Friday 30 October, USD per tonne: copper 14,449, aluminium 3,114 and zinc 3,955.50, all in backwardation against the three-month price (spreads of 199, 34 and 65.50). Metals.dev’s LME-linked feed on 31 October shows copper 14,250, aluminium 3,080, zinc 3,890, nickel 15,425 and lead 1,920; these are feed readings, not settlements. Exchange prices are references, not scrap prices; scrap pays by assay, recovery and the contractual fixing date.

Glossary

• CFR — cost and freight: the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port; the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
• CFR Port Qasim shredded price (MB-STE-0887) — the Fastmarkets index for shredded scrap delivered to Port Qasim, Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal near Karachi.
• Backwardation — spot or cash trading above the three-month price, often a sign of tight nearby supply.
• NGA navigation warnings — active maritime warnings published by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, used here as a rough gauge of Gulf shipping risk.
• Non-OECD authorised-country list — the EU list of non-OECD countries permitted to receive its waste exports under the revised Waste Shipment Regulation.