TDC Ventures

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-16

4 min read

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-16

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s import data improved sharply, but the market still has no openly visible price to confirm it. Pakistan’s statistics bureau reported September iron-and-steel scrap imports of 427,880 tonnes, up 18.3% on a revised August. Those cargoes were ordered weeks ago. BigMint’s Punjab domestic shredded listing is still labelled “Weak”, and the numeric values behind the 15 October BigMint and SMM Port Qasim shredded entries remain behind paywalls. The CFR Port Qasim shredded price (Fastmarkets MB-STE-0887) is a Friday print; the last one this note can cite is 417.31 on 9 October.

Key moves

  • Pakistan imports — the 15 October release puts September scrap arrivals at 427,879.927 tonnes (provisional) against a revised August of 361,745 tonnes (the earlier release said 344,492). July–September totals 1,231,735.927 tonnes, up 34.3% year on year. Arrivals lag purchasing decisions, so this is not evidence of current buying.
  • Currency and fuel — the rupee closed at PKR 276.91 per USD (276.92 on 15 October). High-speed diesel is PKR 396.96 per litre (+0.31); petrol PKR 390.23 (−3.63).
  • Türkiye — LME’s Steel Scrap CFR Turkey (Platts) futures show a day-delayed Month 2 indication near USD 391.50 per tonne on 15 October. That is a futures reference, not a physical print.
  • Regional divergence — SMM reports India’s imported-scrap-linked domestic assessments weaker this week, while Tokyo Steel’s schedule effective 17 October raises selected grades. The pattern is uneven, not a uniform global move.

Freight and shipping

  • Hormuz — Singapore’s maritime authority confirmed the container ship GFS Pride was damaged after a reported 13 October strike, caught fire and sank; all 21 crew were evacuated. SteelOrbis reported, citing an unnamed source, that Pakistan-bound scrap containers were aboard; no manifest has been published and the count is uncorroborated. Active Gulf navigation warnings (NGA) stayed at 19.
  • Oil and tankers — Brent was about USD 109.86 a barrel on 16 October. Reuters reported Gulf of Oman–China supertanker rates easing to about Worldscale 776 from 841 but still historically high. Those are crude-tanker rates, not container freight.
  • Container indices — Drewry’s 15 October World Container Index rose 3% to USD 4,485 per 40-foot container, led by Asia–Europe lanes. It is a global composite, not a Port Qasim rate.
  • Port Qasim and carriers — the 16 October programme lists two scheduled container sailings and coal, rice and palm-oil berthings (schedule entries only). Maersk’s USD 300 per 20-foot peak-season surcharge on certain North Europe and Mediterranean-to-Pakistan movements continues “until further notice”, route and booking permitting.

Supplier markets

  • EU — the consultation on the draft list of non-OECD countries authorised to receive EU waste closes today, 16 October. BIR reports Pakistan is not proposed for ferrous or non-ferrous metal-waste categories; the regime would apply from 21 May 2027, by country and waste code. BIR expects the first list by 21 November; the Commission has said by end-2026. A draft omission is a prospective restriction, not a present ban.
  • UAE — Dubai Customs Notice 13/2026 (HS 7204, 7404, 7602) renews automatically after 8 October unless cancelled; no cancellation or renewal notice has been found.
  • United States and Japan — reports indicate higher US October domestic settlements and rising Japanese mill schedules, which can stiffen export sellers’ alternatives.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Official LME three-month prices for 15 October (Westmetall), change on 14 October: copper USD 14,362.00 (−273.00), aluminium 2,994.50 (−19.00), zinc 3,681.50 (−67.50), nickel 15,125.00 (−555.00), lead 1,889.00 (−17.00), tin 50,000.00 (−950.00). Cochilco’s 16 October sheet shows copper cash at USD 14,595 and three-month at 14,485, a Friday rebound. Chile’s labour authority confirmed an Escondida agreement on 14 October, closing that strike-risk scenario. Chinese secondary-copper commentary describes reluctant buyers despite the rebound.

Glossary

  • CFR — cost and freight: the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port; the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
  • CFR Port Qasim shredded price (MB-STE-0887) — the Fastmarkets index for shredded scrap delivered to Port Qasim, Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal near Karachi.
  • PSS — peak-season surcharge: a carrier charge added to base ocean freight in high-demand periods.
  • Non-OECD authorised-country list — the EU list of non-OECD countries permitted to receive its waste exports under the revised Waste Shipment Regulation.
  • LME — London Metal Exchange, the benchmark venue behind most base-metal scrap pricing formulas.

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