TDC Ventures

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-15

5 min read

Daily Market Note — 2026-10-15

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s imported shredded market still has no openly visible numeric price, and the shipping-risk story near Hormuz widened: two commercial vessels are now confirmed sunk. BigMint’s Europe-origin containerised shredded CFR Qasim entry now carries a 15 October date, but its value sits behind login. The CFR Port Qasim shredded price (Fastmarkets, index MB-STE-0887) publishes weekly on Fridays, so the next print is tomorrow, 16 October. No concluded Pakistan CFR shredded trade dated 15 October was found in public sources. Buying is described as subdued in the trade press; BigMint’s Punjab domestic shredded entry (13 October) is still marked “Weak”.

Key moves

  • Pakistan imported shredded — no public numeric assessment or verified concluded trade dated 15 October.
  • Pakistan domestic — the Pakistan Steel Mills disposal tender (mixed heavy scrap, blooms, billet end cuts, sheet and girders) closed on 14 October; the official notice says final results follow preliminary notifications and shows no award yet.
  • Pakistan currency and fuel — the rupee closed at PKR 276.92 per USD (276.95 on 14 October); the State Bank’s 15 October panel shows 276.9221. High-speed diesel is PKR 396.65 per litre, down PKR 0.17; petrol is PKR 393.86, up PKR 1.20.
  • India — BigMint’s public display shows the Mandi Gobindgarh LMS (delivered-at-place) entry down INR 350 on the day; tax basis and denominator are not stated.
  • Japan and US — Tokyo Steel’s 14 October schedule is identical to the previous day’s, so its increase is not new. SteelOrbis headlines US West Coast dock and container scrap indications flat this week.

Freight and shipping

  • Hormuz — Singapore’s maritime authority confirmed the container ship GFS Pride was struck on 13 October (Singapore time), caught fire and sank, with all 21 crew evacuated. Reuters reports the dry-bulk carrier Cape Dao also sank near the Strait after a separate attack. SteelOrbis reported on 15 October, citing an unnamed market source, that at least 221 Pakistan-bound steel-scrap containers were aboard GFS Pride; there is no public manifest and the count is unverified. Reuters has Brent near USD 106 per barrel intraday and says the International Energy Agency will release more than 20 million barrels of diesel. The public Gulf navigation-warning count was unchanged, so that proxy does not mirror the incidents. Carrier acceptance and war-risk cover should be confirmed route by route.
  • Port Qasim — the 15 October programme lists two scheduled sailings and two scheduled berthings, including one container vessel. These are schedule entries, not proof of discharge, and a one-day change says nothing about congestion.
  • Carrier charges — Maersk’s peak-season surcharge of USD 300 per 20-foot container on certain North Europe and Mediterranean-to-Pakistan movements has applied since 15 August “until further notice”, subject to route and booking. Scrap into Pakistan moves in 20-foot containers at about 25 t, so that is about USD 12 per tonne where it applies. Maersk’s Nordic inland fuel surcharges (from 14 October) apply to inland services only, and Hapag-Lloyd’s 15 October USD 1,000 per container increase covers Pakistan-origin exports to the US, not inbound scrap. Maersk’s Pakistan billing rate is PKR 279.57 per USD for 12–16 October.

Supplier markets

  • EU — the consultation on the draft list of non-OECD countries authorised to receive EU waste closes tomorrow, 16 October 2026. BIR reports Pakistan’s ferrous and non-ferrous metal-waste categories are not authorised in the draft, and that it met Pakistani representatives and is finalising its own response. The new restrictions apply from 21 May 2027; sources differ on list-publication timing (21 November planned versus “by the end of 2026”). This is a draft, not final law.
  • UAE — Dubai Customs Notice 13/2026 restricts selected iron and steel (HS 7204), copper (HS 7404) and aluminium (HS 7602) scrap exports and renews automatically after 8 October unless cancelled; no cancellation was found.
  • Türkiye — a market review published 11 October put European HMS 80:20 for Türkiye at around USD 395 per tonne CFR at the end of September, after a September high near USD 402–404. That is historical bulk evidence, not a Pakistan containerised level.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Official LME prices for 15 October (Westmetall): copper cash USD 14,539.00 / three-month 14,362.00; aluminium 2,999.00 / 2,994.50; zinc 3,724.00 / 3,681.50. Cochilco’s 15 October benchmarks show nickel cash at USD 14,885 (−590), lead 1,853 (−13) and tin 50,100 (−1,000); LME opening copper stock is 226,600 t (−1,400). Chile’s labour authority confirmed Escondida and its supervisors’ union reached agreement on 14 October; Centinela says production is on plan. SMM reports secondary copper trading hesitant during sharp price swings and cites ADC12 aluminium alloy at CNY 24,300/mt. Platts plans weekly DAP Mexico aluminium-alloy-wheel scrap assessments from the week of 9 November.

Glossary

  • CFR — cost and freight: the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port; the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
  • CFR Port Qasim shredded price (MB-STE-0887) — the Fastmarkets index for shredded scrap delivered to Port Qasim, Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal near Karachi.
  • HMS 80:20 — heavy melting scrap, 80% grade 1 and 20% grade 2.
  • PSS — peak-season surcharge: a carrier charge added to base ocean freight in high-demand periods.
  • Non-OECD authorised-country list — the EU list of non-OECD countries permitted to receive its waste exports under the revised Waste Shipment Regulation.
  • LME — London Metal Exchange, the benchmark venue behind most base-metal scrap pricing formulas.

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