Daily Market Note — 2026-10-05
Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.
The read
Pakistan’s imported shredded market still has no fresh physical price. The latest published index figure is about $415.61/MT CFR Port Qasim, from Friday 2 October. A market report that appeared to show supplier offers at $440–445/MT has since been checked: its source is dated January 2024, so that figure should not be read as a current level. We correct the 2 and 3 October notes on this point. Buyers remain cautious amid weak steel demand, and the market is waiting for concluded trades before the higher offer level can be confirmed.
Key moves
- Pakistan imported shredded — index $415.61/MT (2 Oct, the last print on file). No concluded trade at a higher level has been verified.
- Oil — Brent traded around $100–101/bbl on 5 October, down from about $102 on 2 October, as Middle East crude exports recovered toward pre-conflict levels.
- Base metals — LME three-month copper at about $14,366/MT. Cash copper traded at a premium of about $64/MT to three months, a sign of tighter near-term availability.
- Rupee — PKR 277.06/USD on 5 October, a one-paisa-scale move from the previous close.
Freight and shipping
- Gulf crude exports have recovered: seven- and fourteen-day averages in late September were close to pre-conflict levels.
- Maritime security risk has not eased. Reports cite at least seven tanker attacks in the past week, and UKMTO has reported attacks in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden on most days since 2 October. A public Gulf navigation-warning count has held at 19 over the same period, so the scale of the threat is not settled by that measure.
- Freight should be read from carrier rate notices. Lower crude does not automatically lower container rates, and war-risk, security, bunker and insurance charges should be quoted as separate components of any CFR price.
- Port Qasim is operating normally: three vessels were scheduled to sail and three to berth on 5 October.
- Pakistan diesel (HSD) is PKR 399.64/litre for 3–5 October, which is the basis for inland trucking costs.
Supplier markets
- Pakistan — the most reliable public signal is buyer caution. The offer-to-index gap that featured in recent notes should be treated as unverified until a dated supplier quote or concluded trade confirms it.
- UAE — Dubai’s temporary export restriction on specified ferrous, copper and aluminium scrap HS codes remains in force through 8 October 2026, unless it is cancelled or renewed. An exemption route exists for eligible shipments.
- EU — the consultation on the European Commission’s draft list of non-OECD countries authorised to receive EU waste stays open until 16 October 2026. The current draft does not authorise Pakistan for ferrous or non-ferrous metal waste. This is a draft, not current law. Covered non-hazardous waste exports to non-OECD countries generally stop from 21 May 2027 unless the destination and waste stream are authorised. EU exports of e-waste to non-OECD countries have been prohibited since 1 January 2025.
Non-ferrous snapshot
On 5 October, LME three-month levels were approximately: copper $14,366/MT, aluminium $3,118/MT, zinc $3,714/MT, nickel $15,690/MT and lead $1,872/MT. Copper’s cash premium points to near-term tightness. With prices moving intraday, formula-based pricing tied to the exact LME reference, fixing date and fixing time remains the sound default.
Glossary
- CFR — cost and freight: the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port; the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
- Port Qasim — Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal, near Karachi.
- Shredded (ISRI 211) — processed scrap of consistent size and density; the main containerised grade into Pakistan.
- HSD — high-speed diesel, the fuel price used for inland trucking costs.
- LME — London Metal Exchange, the benchmark venue behind most base-metal scrap pricing formulas.
- Backwardation (cash over three-month) — when the spot or cash price trades above the three-month price, which signals tight near-term supply.