Daily Market Note — 2026-09-13

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s imported shredded market held steady over the weekend while Gulf shipping risk escalated further, raising the odds of a volatile Monday freight opening.

No fresh Pakistan shredded transaction was reported over the weekend, leaving the market anchored at $418/MT CFR Port Qasim (the freshest verified trade, from 11 September) with a recent range of $417–420/MT and asks around $420, premium targets $425. Separately, a commercial vessel was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 September, causing a fire and crew evacuation, while Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline — shut since a drone attack earlier in the week — remained offline, with reserve inventories at the export terminal estimated to cover only five to seven days if the outage continues. Both developments occurred after Friday’s market close, so their freight and insurance consequences will only show up when markets reopen Monday.

Key moves

• Pakistan imported shredded — no new weekend transaction; anchor holds at $418/MT CFR Port Qasim; working range $417–420/MT CFR; asks near $420, premium targets $425.
• Turkey — deep-sea HMS 80:20 held at a three-month high following a US-origin cargo booked at $390/MT CFR, with tradeable values reported at $390–395/MT CFR; strength attributed to tightening billet availability.
• India — Chennai HMS 80:20 heard around $360/MT CFR, with cleaner hand-loaded material workable near $370/MT CFR; a Brazil-origin cargo booked $370–375/MT CFR; domestic Alang melting scrap and Mandi Gobindgarh HMS both rose day-on-day, though actual procurement stayed cautious.
• US export — ferrous export prices remain up $8/MT on the week (unrefreshed since Friday), with HMS 80:20 near $352/MT FOB and shredded near $372/MT FOB.
• Europe — FOB Rotterdam HMS 80:20 bulk remains around $343/MT; Rotterdam-to-Turkey freight has risen to $30–32/MT on low Rhine water levels; UK HMS 80:20 indicated at roughly $297–311/MT DAP-equivalent.

Freight and shipping

A second consecutive weekend of escalation means Monday’s freight opening should not be read off Friday’s close.

• Strait of Hormuz: a commercial vessel was struck by a projectile on 13 September, causing a fire and crew evacuation.
• Saudi East-West pipeline: remains shut after last week’s drone attack; Reuters reports export-terminal inventories may cover only roughly five to seven days if the outage continues, with industry repair estimates ranging widely from several days to five to six weeks.
• Bab el-Mandeb: Houthi control of Perim Island continues to add risk to a corridor Reuters estimates carries roughly 7% of global petroleum flows and 12% of global trade.
• Oil: markets remain closed for the weekend, so Friday’s settlements — Brent $104.61/bbl, WTI $100.05/bbl — are still the latest completed references, not live prices.
• Destination operations: Port Qasim’s published shipping programme for 13 September shows continued container vessel activity with no reported cancellations.
• Carrier surcharges, unchanged and in force: Middle East → Pakistan remains $2,050 per 20ft and $3,500 per 40ft/40HC/45HC. Far East Asia → Pakistan remains $1,000 per 20ft, $1,500 per 40ft/45ft, confirmed rising to $2,000 per 40ft/45ft from 15 September (two days away; South Korea from 18 September); not applicable to spot bookings.
• Inland: Pakistan’s retail petrol and diesel prices remain at their fifth consecutive increase level.

Supplier markets

A temporary UAE restriction on ferrous, copper, and aluminium scrap exports remains scheduled through 8 October, with possible exemptions for pre-existing contracts. On the EU side, the European Commission has dropped its previously discussed plan for a 15% aluminium-scrap export duty, reportedly over concerns raised by India, and is instead leaning on the existing Waste Shipment Regulation framework for future non-OECD scrap controls — this does not amount to a new export ban today. Pakistan remains among the countries that have applied to keep receiving specified non-hazardous EU waste streams, with the Commission’s first published list of authorised non-OECD countries still due by 21 November 2026; the EU’s separate ban on e-waste exports to non-OECD countries has been in force since 1 January 2025. Fastmarkets’ Pakistan shredded index remains on its new weekly (Friday) publication schedule, with the first assessment due 18 September.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Latest official LME cash-settlement and three-month reference levels (11 September — Sunday carries forward Friday’s close, unchanged from Saturday):

• Copper — cash $14,238.50/t, three-month $14,233/t.
• Zinc — cash $4,015/t, three-month $3,872/t, a $143/t cash premium over three-month.
• Aluminium — cash $3,274/t, three-month $3,250/t.
• Nickel — cash $16,270/t, three-month $16,415/t (three-month trades above cash — a contango).
• Lead — cash $1,854/t, three-month $1,897/t.

Glossary

• CFR — cost and freight; the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port, the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
• Port Qasim — Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal, near Karachi.
• Shredded — processed scrap of consistent size and density, the main containerised grade into Pakistan.
• HMS 1&2 80:20 — heavy melting scrap in a standard 80:20 grade mix, the benchmark bulk ferrous grade.
• PSS / ECS — peak season surcharge / emergency contingency surcharge, temporary carrier charges added to base ocean freight, quoted per container.
• Cash vs three-month (LME) — cash is the price for immediate delivery; three-month is the standard forward reference. When cash trades above three-month (“backwardation”), it usually signals tight near-term supply; the reverse (“contango”) usually signals ample near-term supply.
• Non-OECD waste-shipment rules — EU regulations governing which countries outside the OECD may receive specified waste exports, including scrap metal, from EU member states.