TDC Ventures

Daily Market Note — 2026-09-12

5 min read

Daily Market Note — 2026-09-12

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s imported shredded market printed a fresh trade inside its recently established range, while a weekend escalation in Gulf shipping risk sets up a volatile Monday freight opening.

A UK-origin shredded cargo was reported sold at $418/MT CFR Port Qasim on 11 September, sitting between the two cargoes reported earlier in the week (a 3,000 MT parcel at $420/MT and a 200 MT parcel at $417/MT, both CFR Qasim), with current asking prices around $420/MT and selected suppliers targeting $425/MT for premium material. Separately, Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its East-West oil pipeline after a drone attack, and Houthi forces were reported to have advanced to Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait — both developments landing after Friday’s market close, meaning their freight and insurance consequences will only show up when markets reopen Monday.

Key moves

  • Pakistan imported shredded — fresh transaction at $418/MT CFR Port Qasim; working range $417–420/MT CFR; asks near $420, premium targets $425.
  • Turkey — deep-sea HMS 80:20 reached a three-month high after a US-origin cargo booked at $390/MT CFR, with tradeable values reported at $390–395/MT CFR; strength attributed to tightening billet availability.
  • India — Chennai HMS 80:20 heard around $360/MT CFR; a Brazil-origin cargo booked $370–375/MT CFR; domestic Alang melting scrap and Mandi Gobindgarh HMS both rose day-on-day.
  • Bangladesh — booked Australian/New Zealand-origin shredded at $400–410/MT CFR Chattogram and HMS 90:10 at $385–390/MT CFR; a Philippines-origin cargo booked at $378/MT CFR.
  • US export — ferrous export prices reported up $8/MT on the week, with HMS 80:20 near $352/MT FOB and shredded near $372/MT FOB.
  • Europe — FOB Rotterdam HMS 80:20 bulk rose to around $343/MT; UK HMS 80:20 indicated at roughly $297–311/MT DAP-equivalent.

Freight and shipping

A weekend escalation on two fronts means Monday’s freight opening should not be read off Friday’s close.

  • Saudi East-West pipeline: temporarily shut after a drone attack; Reuters reports it had been moving roughly 4–5 million barrels a day, about 4–5% of global oil supply. Duration and export impact were unclear at the time of writing.
  • Bab el-Mandeb: Houthi forces reached Perim Island, a further advance on a corridor Reuters estimates carries roughly 7% of global petroleum flows and 12% of global trade.
  • Oil: Brent settled Friday at $104.61/bbl, WTI at $100.05/bbl — Brent up roughly 8.7% and WTI roughly 9.4% on the week; markets were closed over the weekend, so these are Friday levels, not live prices.
  • Destination operations: Port Qasim’s published shipping programme showed continued vessel activity with no reported cancellations.
  • Carrier surcharges, unchanged and in force: Middle East → Pakistan remains $2,050 per 20ft and $3,500 per 40ft/40HC/45HC. Far East Asia → Pakistan remains $1,000 per 20ft, $1,500 per 40ft/45ft, confirmed rising to $2,000 per 40ft/45ft from 15 September (South Korea from 18 September); not applicable to spot bookings.
  • Inland: Pakistan raised retail petrol and diesel prices for a fifth consecutive period.

Supplier markets

A temporary UAE restriction on ferrous, copper, and aluminium scrap exports remains scheduled through 8 October, with possible exemptions for pre-existing contracts. On the EU side, Pakistan remains among the countries that have applied to keep receiving specified non-hazardous EU waste streams, with the European Commission’s first published list of authorised non-OECD countries still due by 21 November 2026; the EU’s separate ban on e-waste exports to non-OECD countries has been in force since 1 January 2025. A wider proposed restriction on waste exports, reported to include aluminium scrap, remains under consultation and is not current law. Separately, Fastmarkets confirmed its Pakistan shredded index moved to weekly (Friday) publication on 11 September, with the first assessment under the new schedule due 18 September.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Latest official LME cash-settlement and three-month reference levels (11 September — Saturday carries forward Friday’s close):

  • Copper — cash $14,238.50/t, three-month $14,233/t.
  • Zinc — cash $4,015/t, three-month $3,872/t, a $143/t cash premium over three-month.
  • Aluminium — cash $3,274/t, three-month $3,250/t.
  • Nickel — cash $16,270/t, three-month $16,415/t (three-month trades above cash — a contango).
  • Lead — cash $1,854/t, three-month $1,897/t.

Glossary

  • CFR — cost and freight; the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port, the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
  • Port Qasim — Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal, near Karachi.
  • Shredded — processed scrap of consistent size and density, the main containerised grade into Pakistan.
  • HMS 1&2 80:20 — heavy melting scrap in a standard 80:20 grade mix, the benchmark bulk ferrous grade.
  • PSS / ECS — peak season surcharge / emergency contingency surcharge, temporary carrier charges added to base ocean freight, quoted per container.
  • Cash vs three-month (LME) — cash is the price for immediate delivery; three-month is the standard forward reference. When cash trades above three-month (“backwardation”), it usually signals tight near-term supply; the reverse (“contango”) usually signals ample near-term supply.
  • Non-OECD waste-shipment rules — EU regulations governing which countries outside the OECD may receive specified waste exports, including scrap metal, from EU member states.

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