Daily Market Note — 2026-09-08

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Pakistan’s shredded structure held for a fourth straight session, while oil pushed to a fresh high even as Gulf shipping conditions sent a genuinely mixed signal.

The Port Qasim shredded structure repeated unchanged: buyer bids around $410–412/MT CFR, reported deals $413–417, standard seller offers $420–422, premium-yard material $425 and above, premium UAE-origin near $430. No fresh Pakistan-specific numeric print was verified today; the most recent detailed public assessment still stands at $417/MT CFR Port Qasim. Brent crude reached $98.25/bbl, its highest level of the current run, while reported Gulf shipping traffic told a mixed story: Strait of Hormuz commodity-vessel counts stayed roughly flat and still well below normal, while traffic through Bab el-Mandeb increased sharply. None of this has yet produced a fresh Pakistan price print — freight and route risk remain the more active variable, not the underlying scrap value.

Key moves

• Pakistan imported shredded — structure unchanged for a fourth session: assessment $417/MT CFR Port Qasim, reported deals $413–417, standard offers $420–422, buyer bids $410–412, premium-yard $425+, premium UAE-origin ~$430.
• UK-origin HMS 80:20 offered $390–395/MT CFR Port Qasim, and Middle East-origin sheared HMS booked $405–410/MT CFR — both holding at levels first reported several sessions ago.
• Turkey’s forward curve: exchange contracts for steel scrap CFR Turkey closed at $388.50/MT for September (unchanged) and $394.50/MT for the second month (down modestly from the prior reading). The physical Turkish HMS tape sits around $382/MT CFR, putting the front-month futures premium at roughly $6–6.50 over physical — a reminder that a forward curve reflects supplier expectations, not a confirmed prompt cargo.
• India’s imported container HMS 80:20 remains assessed around $365/MT CFR Nhava Sheva — India remains a competing destination for the same European-origin material Pakistan buys, though the two markets differ enough in freight, specification and terms that the price gap is not a direct comparison. Separately, India’s own domestic ferrous scrap index eased slightly day-on-day on subdued steel demand, even as regional commentary described imported scrap markets as broadly firm — a reminder that a regional headline and a specific market’s own index do not always point the same way.
• China — spot rebar prices held broadly steady while sales volumes softened, and crude steel output continued to run below year-earlier levels even as iron ore imports rose. The overall signal remains cost- and supply-side rather than a confirmed demand-led upturn.

Freight and shipping

Oil reached a fresh high for the run, while the shipping-traffic picture was mixed rather than one-directional.

• Strait of Hormuz: commodity-vessel transits were reported at seven on Monday, essentially flat versus eight on Sunday, and still well below normal pre-disruption levels. Bab el-Mandeb traffic, by contrast, increased sharply to a reported 29 vessels from 17. Regional tensions remained elevated, with reports of stronger rhetoric around Gulf energy infrastructure and continued attacks affecting energy facilities elsewhere in the region. Brent traded near $98.25/bbl, WTI near $93.70/bbl — both fresh highs for the current run.
• Destination operations remain unaffected: Port Qasim and Karachi Port both continued normal daily operations with no cancellations reported — a reminder that route risk and destination-port risk are separate things and should be priced separately.
• Carrier surcharges, unchanged and in force: Europe → Pakistan peak season surcharge remains $300 per 20ft, $500 per 40ft/40HC/45HC. Far East Asia → Pakistan remains $1,000 per 20ft, $1,500 per 40ft/45ft, rising to $2,000 per 40ft/45ft from 15 September (South Korea from 18 September) — not applicable to spot bookings. Middle East → Pakistan emergency contingency surcharges remain $2,050 per 20ft and $3,500 per 40ft/40HC/45HC, in force since 1 September.

Supplier markets

UK-origin scrap was again reported offered around GBP 255–260/MT ex-works, unchanged over several sessions. A temporary UAE ferrous scrap export restriction remains scheduled through 8 October, with exemptions possible through government approval.

On the regulatory front: the European Commission is reportedly preparing a proposal for a broader restriction on waste exports — including aluminium scrap — to non-OECD countries. The proposal remains subject to public consultation and adoption procedures and is not yet final law; Pakistan, as a non-OECD destination, would be directly affected if adopted in the reported form. Separately, a US rule affecting the domestic handling of specified battery-material (“black mass”) and tungsten scrap remains in force through August 2027 unless changed.

Non-ferrous snapshot

Reported LME three-month closing levels (day-delayed):

• Copper — around $14,510/t, up roughly 0.65% on the session.
• Aluminium — around $3,312/t, up roughly 0.56%.
• Zinc — around $3,984/t, up roughly 0.95%.
• Nickel — around $16,715/t, down roughly 0.78%.
• Tin — up roughly 0.50% on the session.

Glossary

• CFR — cost and freight; the seller pays ocean freight to the destination port, the buyer carries insurance and transit risk.
• EXW — ex works; the buyer arranges and pays for onward transport, so freight is priced separately from the material.
• Port Qasim — Pakistan’s main deep-water import terminal, near Karachi.
• Shredded — processed scrap of consistent size and density, the main containerised grade into Pakistan.
• HMS 1&2 80:20 — heavy melting scrap in a standard 80:20 grade mix, the benchmark bulk ferrous grade.
• Sheared HMS — heavy melting scrap cut to size, typically denser and easier to charge than unprepared material.
• PSS / ECS — peak season surcharge / emergency contingency surcharge, temporary carrier charges added to base ocean freight, quoted per container.
• Three-month (LME) — the standard forward reference point on the exchange price curve, distinct from the immediate “cash” price; the gap between the two signals how tight or loose nearby physical supply is.