The Week in One Page — Week of 11 July 2026
Bottom Line
Scrap prices into Turkey stopped falling this week and held near $369 per tonne for two days. There is no firm floor yet, so keep holding off on new buying and do not chase prices back up.
5 Things You Need to Know
- Turkey scrap steadied at about $369 per tonne after three weeks of falling. This is a pause, not a proven bottom.
- The weakness moved elsewhere. US East Coast scrap fell $15 to $328 per tonne, and Bangladesh dropped $10 to $362 per tonne.
- India pays about $20 per tonne less than it costs to ship scrap there. So US and European sellers skip India and sell to Turkey instead.
- Ocean freight for big bulk ships jumped 7–14% on fears of a mine-port strike in Australia. That raises the delivered cost of scrap.
- We booked a new load: 1,000 tonnes of Canadian shredded scrap at $388 per tonne, shipped to Pakistan.
Top 3 Actions This Week
- Wait on Turkey buying. WHEN: now. PRICE: pay $364–369 per tonne, no higher. WHY: the price paused but has no proven floor, so a small bounce is not worth chasing.
- Hold US and Canadian scrap. WHEN: this week. WHY: India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan are only buying at deep discounts, so do not dump material into weak bids.
- Keep buying Baltic rails near $440 per tonne. WHEN: while the price holds. WHY: rails stayed steady while scrap fell, protecting our profit on sales into Pakistan.
Why Prices Moved (and Other Changes)
Turkish steel mills have weak demand, so they keep pushing scrap prices down. One big Turkish mill, Kardemir, cut its prices again and sold out within an hour — proof that buyers only move on cheap offers. Europe’s scrap yards are quiet because collectors are on summer holiday, but demand is even weaker, so prices still fell. US steel sheet prices rose sharply, but that is a separate, protected market and does not help scrap. Ocean freight rose on worries about a strike at Australia’s Port Hedland, one of the world’s biggest iron-ore ports.
What to Watch Next Week
- A real floor. If Turkey scrap drops below $362 per tonne, the fall continues. If it holds, the two-day pause may become a bottom.
- The Australian port strike. If it happens, freight rises more and delivered scrap costs climb further.
- Asian buyers. Watch whether India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh return after this week’s discounts.
Plain-English Glossary
- HMS 80:20 — Heavy Melting Scrap, an 80%/20% mix of two grades; the most common bulk scrap traded.
- Shredded scrap — scrap shredded into fist-sized pieces; cleaner and pricier than HMS.
- CFR — Cost & Freight; the price includes shipping to the buyer’s port.
- FOB — Free On Board; the price excludes shipping; the buyer arranges freight.
- Per tonne — the price for one metric tonne (1,000 kg) of scrap.
- Rails — used railway track steel; a premium scrap grade we buy from the Baltic.
- Kardemir — a large Turkish steel mill whose price cuts move the market.
Drill-down: Weekly Briefing — 11 Jul 2026 · Scrap Arbitrage Map — 2026-07-11 · Ventures Watchlist Priorities