The Week in One Page — Week of 26 May 2026
Bottom Line
Scrap prices into Turkey are drifting lower — a UK seller closed a deal at $406 per tonne this week, $4 below the official index price of $410. Wait before booking new scrap supply; index prices should fall to $405–408 in the next week or two, and that is the better entry point.
5 Things You Need to Know
- A UK scrap deal closed at $406 per tonne this week — $4 below the official $410 index, signalling that index prices will follow lower next week.
- Iron ore (the raw material for Chinese steel) fell 4.2% in one week to $108 per tonne — the biggest weekly drop in our dataset, signalling weaker Chinese steel demand ahead.
- European steel prices recovered slightly after collapsing two weeks ago, but remain 8.5% below their April peak, capped by cheap Chinese exports at $508 per tonne.
- The EU approved a 50% import tariff on steel above a set quota, starting July 1 — over time this means European scrap stays in Europe rather than being exported to Turkey.
- A Turkish steel mill sold nearly 21,000 tonnes of rebar to Gulf buyers in about one hour at $591 per tonne — strong signal that buyers in the region are ready to act at these prices.
Top 3 Actions This Week
1. Wait on Turkey scrap bookings
- When: This week and next
- Price target: $405–408 per tonne
- Why: The UK deal at $406 is the true market right now. Official indexes ($409–410) will decline within two weekly publications to match it. Booking supply at $410 today means overpaying by $2–4 per tonne.
2. Monitor iron ore daily
- When: Every day this week
- Watch level: $108 per tonne — if it breaks below this, act
- Why: If iron ore keeps falling, Chinese steel factories slow output. Less Chinese steel means less competition for Turkish and Gulf mills in the Middle East — which supports Turkish rebar and billet prices and keeps mill buying margins healthy.
3. Contact European scrap yard relationships now
- When: Immediately — this is time-sensitive
- Why: Glencore, one of the world’s largest commodity traders, just entered the EU-to-Turkey scrap route. They will approach preferred suppliers first. TDC must establish or reconfirm supply agreements before Glencore’s contracts foreclose access to those yards.
Why Prices Moved
Iron ore fell 4.2% in one week — the sharpest weekly drop in our dataset — because Chinese steel factories are slowing raw material purchases, which signals softer production ahead. European steel prices (hot-rolled coil) bounced back slightly from a two-week-ago crash, but Chinese exporters at $508 per tonne still undercut European mills by a wide margin, capping any recovery. In Turkey, the scrap index slipped to $409–410, but a below-index UK deal at $406 revealed the true market sentiment — mills are not in a hurry to buy. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is paying unusually high prices for domestic scrap ($437 per tonne, versus $410 at Turkey) because the Hormuz blockade cut off their normal supply of iron pellets, forcing their steel mills to substitute scrap — a demand surge that cannot easily be relieved by imports.
What to Watch Next Week
- Turkey scrap index (Kallanish and Fastmarkets): If next week’s publications print $405–408 per tonne, prices have caught up to the UK deal — that is the buying window for scrap supply.
- Iron ore KORE 61%: If it falls below $108 per tonne and stays there, Chinese demand is in a sustained decline. Bearish for Chinese steel exports globally, but good for Turkish and Gulf mill margins.
- MENA billet deals: Saudi buyers asked for 15,000–20,000 tonnes of billet this week. If those transactions close, it confirms that Gulf demand is strong and active — a positive signal for the Turkey-to-MENA steel export chain.
Plain-English Glossary
- Index price — the official daily benchmark price published by specialist agencies (Kallanish, Fastmarkets); set by assessed market consensus and not always the same as actual deal prices.
- Iron ore — the raw material mined to make steel in blast furnaces; lower prices signal Chinese factories expect to produce less steel.
- Hot-rolled coil (HRC) — flat rolled steel sheet used by manufacturers making cars, appliances, and pipes.
- Rebar — steel reinforcing bars used to strengthen concrete in buildings and roads; the main product of Turkish and Egyptian steel mills.
- Billet — a semi-finished steel bar sold to rolling mills that convert it into rebar or structural sections.
- MENA — Middle East and North Africa; the primary export market for Turkish and Egyptian steel.
- KORE 61% — Kallanish’s price index for iron ore with 61% iron content, delivered to Chinese ports.
- Glencore — one of the world’s largest commodity trading companies; recently confirmed entry into the EU-to-Turkey scrap route.
- Hormuz blockade — closure of the Strait of Hormuz (a narrow shipping channel between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula) since February 2026; cut off iron pellet supply to Gulf steel mills, forcing them to buy more scrap.
- CFR Turkey — the price to deliver scrap to a Turkish port, with freight included; the main global benchmark for ferrous scrap.