Daily Market Note — 31 July 2026

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

The separation that opened yesterday became a gulf today. Copper posted its largest single-session gain of the series while the ferrous tape did not move at all — not in Turkey, not at the docks, not on the export FOBs. Two markets, one day, and only one of them is trading.

Yesterday the case for copper rested on market structure: the metal for immediate delivery was commanding a premium over metal for later, which is the classic signature of genuine prompt shortage. The argument was that the headline price would eventually follow the structure. Today it did, and emphatically. That sequence — structure first, price second — is what distinguishes a real squeeze from a speculative one.

Ferrous, meanwhile, has gone quiet in a way that is becoming notable in itself.

Key moves

• Copper: $13,770/t, up $162 (+1.19%). The largest one-day gain recorded in this series, and a clean break from the four-session range of roughly $13,606–13,617 that had held all week.
• Turkish deep-sea scrap: frozen on every leg. The leading US-origin index has now held $377.76 for four consecutive sessions — its longest flat run since May. The general HMS 80:20 assessment sits at $374.00, with US-origin $376.00, Baltic $374.00 and EU-origin $369.50, all unchanged. One widely-followed range assessment has held $368–376 for six consecutive issues, the longest unchanged stretch on record for that series.
• The origin side is equally still. Rotterdam HMS 80:20 FOB $335.23, UK export FOB $339.65 and UK shredded FOB $359.63 were flat for a third session. Dock, FOB and CFR are consolidating in unison — no leg is leading.
• The one moving line is worth watching. Shipbreaking scrap delivered into Turkey rose $2.50 to $377.50, which puts it about $3.50 above the general deep-sea HMS assessment. Domestic alternative feed bidding above imported material is an early sign that mills are reaching for substitutes rather than paying up for deep-sea cargoes.
• The forward curve was not re-observed today. As of the most recent reading it ran from about $376/t at the front to $408/t in December. Whether it held those levels is, at time of writing, simply unknown — and a curve that is asserted rather than observed is worth treating carefully.

Freight and shipping

No confirmed change in regional container freight for a fifth consecutive session, and no reliable public rate for specific lanes into South Asia. The underlying exposure is unchanged: conflict-related routing, higher fuel costs, security surcharges, congestion and equipment availability all remain live.

The arithmetic worth repeating: a $500 per-container surcharge is roughly $18.50–$20 per tonne at typical loadings of 25–27 tonnes. A single surcharge can absorb an entire trading margin without the scrap price moving at all, and lighter loads make it worse. Emergency and war-risk charges can in some cases be applied after a booking is confirmed.

Supplier markets

European and UK sellers continue to cite the forward curve in support of firmer asking prices. The reasonable question is which cost has actually moved — scrap or freight — since they behave differently and should be quoted separately. With physical assessments now flat for the better part of a week, an increase justified by the curve is an increase justified by expectation.

On policy, the EU’s revised rules on waste shipments to non-OECD destinations apply from May 2027. Both the destination country and the receiving facilities must meet approval conditions, so eligibility is not something an exporter secures alone.

In Pakistan, a 4% regulatory duty is confirmed for the 2026–27 fiscal year on tinned iron or steel scrap — one tariff line only. Other grades may be treated differently and need checking individually.

Non-ferrous snapshot

• Copper — the day’s story, as above. The move came on an already-tight backdrop: available exchange inventory near six-month lows, Shanghai stocks well down from spring levels, a sharply higher Chinese import premium, and an unusual concentration of visible global stocks in US warehouses pending an unresolved tariff decision. Two large buyers pulling at the same metal for unrelated reasons.
• Aluminium — $3,187/t, up $10. Firmer but unremarkable, and still far below the early-June peak near $3,787.50. Physical premiums in Europe and Japan remain above pre-conflict levels, so the exchange price understates real replacement cost.
• Zinc — $3,601/t, up $22. Firm, but a fraction of copper’s move. For anyone pricing copper-zinc alloy scrap, that divergence matters: an assay-weighted blend firms considerably less than copper alone, and the gap widened today.
• Lead — unchanged read. Chinese refined imports have run far above last year’s levels because a scrap shortage has constrained secondary production, which lends physical support to lead-bearing scrap.

Glossary

• CFR — Cost & Freight; price includes shipping to the buyer’s port.
• FOB — Free On Board; price at the loading port, before ocean freight.
• HMS 80:20 — Heavy Melting Scrap, the most common bulk grade.
• Forward curve — prices for delivery in future months; an upward slope means the market expects higher prices later.
• Backwardation — when metal for immediate delivery costs more than metal for later delivery; a classic sign of physical shortage right now.
• Contango — the opposite of backwardation; later delivery costs more, the normal state of a well-supplied market.
• Shipbreaking scrap — steel recovered from dismantled ships; a domestic alternative to imported deep-sea scrap.
• Regulatory duty — an additional import duty applied to specific tariff lines, separate from standard customs duty.