Daily Market Note — 29 July 2026

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Cautiously firm — but “firm” is doing some work today. Turkey’s forward curve held its shape into the fourth quarter, and sellers are reading that as licence to resist lower offers. Look closer and the front of the curve did not actually move: July through October closed at the same levels as the previous session. Flat is being narrated as strong. The physical market agreed by also going quiet, which is consistent, but consolidation is not a rally.

The gap that has defined this week is still open. Supplier confidence is visible and quantified; South Asian buy-side confirmation is not. That asymmetry is the story.

Key moves

• Turkey scrap futures (LME), 28 July close: $373.00/t July, $378.00/t August, $384.50/t September, $390.00/t October, $396.00/t November, $400.00/t December. The curve slopes steadily into year-end, and the December $400 print is the number sellers will quote. Two caveats worth holding: July–October are unchanged from the prior close, and a five-month-forward financial reference is not a bid for prompt cargo.
• Turkey physical was flat on the same date across all three published assessments — no fresh direction either way. Futures and physical are consistent, both consolidating.
• South Asia: no dependable public mill bid sheet for a third consecutive session. Official trade data confirms June scrap imports into Pakistan ran materially above May, which supports the restocking read — but higher June arrivals cut both ways. They can mean consumption improved, or that mills now hold more inventory and less urgency. Fresh bids, not historical tonnage, will settle it.

Freight and shipping

Regional shipping remains exposed to conflict-related route changes, port congestion, vessel shortages, equipment disruption and emergency surcharges. No escalation was reported — but no easing either, and for a third session no reliable public rate was available for any specific origin-to-destination lane in the region.

The practical consequence is unchanged and worth repeating: an indicative freight number is not a rate. A quotation that does not separately disclose war-risk, congestion, emergency, transshipment and equipment charges — alongside routing, named transshipment port, equipment availability, validity date, transit time, rollover risk and destination free days — is an estimate wearing a rate’s clothing. Compare origins on complete delivered cost, never on the FOB headline.

Supplier markets

• UK and Europe: likely to stay firm, and some sellers are citing the Turkish forward curve directly to support higher asking prices. The reasonable counter-question is whether an increase reflects a scrap move or a freight move — those are different costs and should be quoted separately.
• North America: suppliers may hold firm where Turkish or domestic export demand is active.
• Policy: the EU’s revised rules on non-hazardous waste exports to non-OECD countries apply from 21 May 2027, with applications due by November 2026. Both the destination country and the receiving facilities must meet approval conditions — so eligibility is not something an exporter can secure alone. This is a medium-term access question, not an imminent ban.
• Import duties: classification and duty treatment remain a live source of uncertainty for South Asian buyers. Different scrap grades do not necessarily share the same tariff treatment, and a percentage applied to an invoice value is not a landed-duty calculation.

Non-ferrous snapshot

China’s first-half trade data was the day’s substantive release, and the four metals do not agree.

• Copper: net refined imports fell 13% year on year to 1.374 million t — but Shanghai exchange stocks fell to 69,610 t, a two-and-a-half-year low, and the Yangshan import premium rose. Falling imports alongside draining stocks and a rising premium points to tightening, not weakness. LME around $13,606/t.
• Aluminium: LME near $3,143–3,170/t, well below the $3,787.50/t early-June peak. China’s semi-finished exports rose 15% in H1 and Indonesian primary exports also increased, offsetting lost Gulf supply — which explains why the war premium unwound despite real production damage. Physical premiums in Europe and Japan remain elevated, so the futures price understates replacement cost.
• Lead: China imported 147,000 t of refined lead in H1 2026 against 17,000 t a year earlier, reportedly because a scrap shortage constrained secondary lead production. Note that LME lead stock movements are currently distorted by large warrant cancellations and withdrawals — a falling headline is not automatically consumption.
• Zinc: net refined imports fell 79% year on year as domestic smelting capacity expanded. Import substitution rather than demand collapse, but it may cap refined upside. LME around $3,576/t.

Glossary

• CFR — Cost & Freight; price includes shipping to the buyer’s port.
• HMS 80:20 — Heavy Melting Scrap, the most common bulk grade.
• Shredded / 211 — processed shredded steel scrap, a premium bulk grade.
• LME — London Metal Exchange; here, both its Turkey scrap futures contract and its non-ferrous benchmarks.
• Forward curve — prices for delivery in future months; an upward slope means the market expects higher prices later.
• Yangshan premium — the premium Chinese buyers pay over the exchange price for imported spot metal; a gauge of real import appetite.
• Cancelled warrant — exchange metal earmarked for withdrawal; rising cancellations can shrink headline stocks without any metal being consumed.
• Rollover — cargo bumped to a later vessel, often burning free time before it discharges.