Daily Market Note — 28 July 2026

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Cautiously firm, with a gap opening between what sellers expect and what buyers have actually confirmed. Turkey’s forward curve still carries a premium into the autumn, and that keeps European and North American suppliers confident. What is missing is verification on the buy side: there is no reliable public evidence today that South Asian mills have raised their bids to match. A firm futures signal out of Turkey is a financial reference, not proof that a physical cargo clears at the same number into a different destination.

Key moves

• Turkey scrap futures (LME), 27 July close: $373.00/t July, $378.00/t August, $384.50/t September, $390.00/t October. The shape still slopes upward into Q4 — but the front has flattened sharply. Against the 24 July close ($373.50 July, $387.50 August), the August contract fell $9.50 in a single session, cutting the front-to-August premium from about $14 to about $5. The forward premium is now a September-and-beyond story, not a next-month one.
• Turkey physical continued to firm on 27 July, trading modestly above the July futures level — physical strength is real, but it is being led by cost, not by finished-steel demand.
• Pakistan: no consistently available public mill bid sheet today, and no reliable public evidence of a broad increase in mill buying prices. Demand is best described as selective.

Freight and shipping

Regional shipping remains exposed to vessel shortages, blank sailings, port congestion, transshipment delays and emergency surcharges, with no sign of easing but no fresh escalation reported either. No origin-specific freight matrix for the main South Asian discharge ports was publicly available today, so delivered-cost comparisons across origins have to be rebuilt from live quotations rather than a published board.

The practical consequence for anyone comparing origins: judge on the complete delivered cost, not the FOB number. A competitive FOB can become unworkable once freight, detention, transshipment and surcharges land on it — and a rate quoted without war-risk, congestion, peak-season and emergency charges is not a rate.

Supplier markets

• UK and Europe: likely to stay firm while Turkey’s forward curve carries a premium. Summer collection remains thin.
• North America: suppliers may also resist lower numbers while export demand is active.
• EU policy: stricter rules on non-hazardous waste exports to non-OECD countries apply from 21 May 2027. Recyclable metal exports may be prohibited unless the destination country appears on an EU-approved list — so eligibility is a question about the destination, not only about the exporter. India has already sought relief from the planned restrictions, arguing reduced EU access would tighten both ferrous and aluminium supply.

Non-ferrous snapshot

• Copper remains supported by tight exchange inventories and strong Chinese demand; June refined-copper imports hit a nine-month high, with the most recent public reference around $13,633/t (20 July).
• Aluminium recently referenced at $3,170–$3,195/t. Futures have given back most of the Gulf disruption premium and sit close to pre-conflict levels — but physical supply is tighter than the headline price suggests, so physical premiums still matter.
• Lead around $1,865–$1,900/t; zinc around $3,590–$3,630/t.

Glossary

• CFR — Cost & Freight; price includes shipping to the buyer’s port.
• HMS 80:20 — Heavy Melting Scrap, the most common bulk grade.
• Shredded / 211 — processed shredded steel scrap, a premium bulk grade.
• LME — London Metal Exchange; here, its Turkey scrap futures contract.
• Forward curve — the set of prices for delivery in future months; an upward slope means the market expects higher prices later.
• Blank sailing — a scheduled vessel call that the carrier cancels.
• Rollover — cargo bumped to a later vessel, often burning free time before it discharges.