TDC Ventures

Daily Market Note — 27 July 2026

3 min read

Daily Market Note — 27 July 2026

Market commentary on the global ferrous scrap trade. Not trading advice.

The read

Prices into Pakistan firmed at the margin last week, but the move was freight-led, not demand-led. Mills are buying selectively on weak local finished-steel demand, so a firmer futures signal out of Turkey does not automatically validate every physical cargo. Freight disruption is the story to watch.

Key moves

  • Pakistan imported scrap rose about $5–7/t on 24 July, driven mainly by higher freight rather than fresh mill appetite.
  • Turkey scrap futures (LME) closed $373.50/t for July and $387.50/t for August on 24 July — a ~$14 forward premium signalling expectations of firmer pricing. It is a futures indicator, not proof that every physical cargo clears at $387–400 CFR.
  • Pakistan June imports: 323,896 tonnes, up 24.2% month-on-month and 64.9% year-on-year; import bill up 46.9% m/m to $199.34M. A real restock — but buyers have since returned to selective purchasing, and earlier bookings may already be arriving.

Freight and shipping

West Asian disruption is driving vessel shortages, blank sailings, port congestion and emergency surcharges, with rates on several affected routes reportedly doubled or tripled. Congestion at Mundra and Nhava Sheva is also affecting regional container positioning and transshipment availability relevant to Pakistan. Freight is the dominant near-term swing factor.

Supplier markets

  • UK / Europe: UK competition for shredder feed stays strong. Germany faces tight new-scrap and turnings supply plus rail, truck and inland-water (Rhine) logistics issues. Scandinavian HMS fell ~7% in June as Turkey slowed, though recent Turkish bookings may stiffen sellers.
  • Germany domestic scrap: down €15–25/t in July on weak domestic demand and a poor export market — E3 €305–315/t, E40 €315–325/t, E8 €320–330/t delivered.
  • North America: US scrap exports hit 1.16M tonnes in May, +16% m/m; shipments to Turkey nearly doubled to 264,990 t. Rising export competition may keep US and Canadian dock prices firm.
  • EU policy: from May 2027, EU non-hazardous waste exports to non-OECD destinations may require EU approval, with applications due by November 2026. Separate aluminium-scrap restrictions are under consideration. EU-origin suppliers selling to non-OECD buyers should assess eligibility now.

Non-ferrous snapshot

  • Copper ~$13,633/t (20 Jul). Chinese import demand strengthened; Shanghai stocks down >80% from mid-March and LME down 24% from late May — strong support for higher copper and brass asking prices.
  • Aluminium ~$3,170/t (24 Jul), down from ~$3,787 in early June despite Gulf supply losses; physical premiums remain above the futures price.

Glossary

  • CFR — Cost & Freight; price includes shipping to the buyer’s port.
  • HMS 80:20 — Heavy Melting Scrap, the most common bulk grade.
  • Shredded / 211 — processed shredded steel scrap, a premium bulk grade.
  • LME — London Metal Exchange; here, its Turkey scrap futures contract.
  • Blank sailing — a scheduled vessel call that the carrier cancels.

Graph View