Today’s snapshot — 2026-08-17
No SteelOrbis issue; all prices are 14 Aug data.
Top mover: Black Sea billet export index +$8.00 (+1.76%) to $463/t FOB — the biggest single move as deep-sea demand returns across the complex.
Notable prices:
- US-origin HMS 80:20 CFR Turkey = $378.98/t (+$3.74, +1.00%) — highest of the rebound, $1.02 short of $380
- Turkey HMS 80:20 general, Kallanish = $373.25/t (unchanged, fifth session) — the publishers have split
- Rotterdam HMS 80:20 FOB = $333.50/t (+$3.74, +1.13%) — origin rose with destination; UK export FOB $337.03
- Black Sea billet export = $463/t (+$8.00, +1.76%) — recovers the entire 11 Aug cut
Headline driver: Freight at its worst of the sequence — five Hormuz transits Saturday, none Sunday, a third tanker attacked, Brent near $89, another record-low Rhine pushing cargo to rail and road. The brief’s read that US export activity is picking up on Turkish September cover is confirmed: the Fastmarkets chain rose $3.74 in lockstep. ⚠️ Its instruction to treat $376.50 as the current Turkey reference is contradicted — that is a futures settlement; physical printed $378.98.
Action signal: Hold freight allowances at full; press US and UK origin before September cover absorbs the softer domestic tape. Do not chase Turkey on a futures number now below the print.