Today’s snapshot — 2026-08-12
Top mover: Black Sea billet export index −$12.00 (−2.57%) to $455/t FOB — Russian mills are pulling back from firm export commitments as Black Sea shipping risk keeps loading schedules uncertain, leaving semis the weakest leg of the complex.
Notable prices:
- Turkey US-origin HMS 80:20 CFR = $377.11/t (−$0.82, −0.22%) — the fifth session inside a $2 band
- Turkey shredded CFR = $393.25/t (unchanged) — scrap tape frozen, not firming
- Rotterdam HMS 80:20 FOB = $331.63/t (−$0.82, −0.25%); UK main port FOB = $335.16/t (−$0.82, −0.24%)
- US Midwest HRC index = $59.31/cwt (+$0.25, +0.42%)
Headline driver: The desk brief leads on deteriorating shipping security — Hormuz transits at a one-week low, fresh attacks on the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman routes — plus impaired Rhine barge logistics. ⚠️ Its “Turkey firm” read is unconfirmed by the tape: every deep-sea leg printed marginally lower and shredded did not move.
Action signal: Wait. Freight risk argues against cutting bids, but no print supports chasing HMS above the high-$370s CFR without a fresh physical cargo.